Coach I’s Week 6 Review: 16–5, a Perfect Friday and Five Picks I Got Wrong

I finished the October 15–17 football slate at 16–5. Thursday was 2–1, Friday was a perfect 10–0, and Saturday brought me back to 4–4. After going 18–2 the previous week, that puts my last two weeks at 34–7. My full-season record through Week 6 is now 111–33 overall (77.1%).

I called this a week full of toss-ups when the picks went up. Some of the uncomfortable calls worked: Valley Central, Pine Bush, Highland and Port Jervis all won. Five did not. Those five deserve the same attention as the Friday sweep.

Season record through Week 6

The split carries forward the Week 4 ledger (67–17 within Section IX, 10–9 against outside opponents), adds Week 5 (18–2, all Section IX matchups), then adds this week’s 14–5 within Section IX and 2–0 against outside opponents. The existing ledger’s treatment of picked forfeit wins is unchanged.

Section IX over everybody: how I make the cross-section picks

When a Section IX team plays an opponent from another section, my rule is simple: Section IX over everybody. I back our section. That loyalty has cost me picks this season, and readers should know it is part of how I choose those games. When two Section IX teams meet, I have to choose between our own programs based on the matchup.

For this October 15–17 review, the cross-section selections were Eldred over Taconic Hills and Onteora over Corinth/Hadley-Luzerne. Both won. That makes this week’s split 14–5 in Section IX vs. Section IX games and 2–0 against out-of-section opponents, for the same 16–5 overall. The out-of-section picks that have hurt my season record came in other weeks; none of this week’s five misses were cross-section games.

Friday: all 10 picks held up

Middletown, Valley Central, Warwick, Port Jervis, Pine Bush, Spackenkill, Marlboro, Highland, Sullivan West and Pawling were my Friday selections. All 10 won. The Middletown and Port Jervis calls were the biggest tests at the top of their classes, but the closer-margin games mattered to the record just as much.

Valley Central beat Monroe-Woodbury 12–7. Pine Bush won at Kingston. Highland responded to its Marlboro loss by beating Chester 38–14. Warwick found its first win, shutting out FDR 26–0. Picking a winner is the first part of the review; checking whether the reasoning survived the game is the useful part.

Port’s 24–14 win over Beacon supported the case I made for an offense that could give the Bulldogs multiple problems. Port trailed 8–7 at halftime and won the second half 17–6. Beacon had earned the attention that came with being unbeaten. Port earned the head-to-head result.

O’Neill: I backed Dover, and the Raiders shut it down

I took Dover in one of the games I identified as a toss-up. O’Neill won 20–0. That is a clear answer, and it belongs to the Raiders. The game moved O’Neill to 3–0 in qualifying Class C play while Dover finished its class schedule at 2–2.

My original concern was the version of O’Neill that had pushed Beacon and then beaten Rondout Valley and Spackenkill. The Raiders gave me another reason to take that progress seriously. A shutout against a playoff opponent carries more weight than the fact that I found reasons to hesitate before kickoff.

Cornwall: Lourdes scored, but the Dragons finished

I picked Lourdes while openly questioning whether its defense could keep Cornwall from answering. Cornwall won 43–41 after trailing 34–29 through three quarters. The Warriors scored enough to give themselves a chance. The Dragons still produced the fourth-quarter response that decided the game.

The lesson from that pick is already in the original reasoning: expecting an offense to score does not settle whether a team can finish the game. Cornwall won the direct meeting and now carries that result into the remaining division schedule.

Goshen: my Wallkill upset call never paid off

I chose Wallkill on the road even though Goshen entered with the stronger record and the stronger recent result. Goshen won 38–16, led 22–8 at halftime and had a 38–8 advantage late. The Gladiators improved to 6–1. Wallkill fell to 3–4.

I used some of Wallkill’s competitive earlier results to explain the upset case. Goshen answered with another win. There is no reason to soften the grade on that one: I took a risk against a team that had been producing, and that team kept producing.

Red Hook and Fallsburg delivered the other two misses

I backed New Paltz’s recent scoring against Red Hook. The Raiders won 36–12. New Paltz had shown it could generate points, but the defensive concerns I noted were still part of the matchup. Red Hook left with the result and a 3–4 record.

I also picked Rockland Central over Fallsburg. The Comets won 58–0 for their first victory of the season. A result that decisive deserves to be stated plainly. Fallsburg supplied the answer on the field and gave its players a win after six losses.

Build from the results: Middletown–Monroe and the AA race · Cornwall’s win and the next Class A division tests.

Every original pick, every grade

The next set of picks will need to account for these results. O’Neill’s shutout, Goshen’s continued production, Cornwall’s finish, Red Hook’s response and Fallsburg’s breakthrough all become part of the evidence. The original picks remain available so readers can compare what I said before the games with what actually happened.

Read the original 21 picks · Full weekend wrap · October 22–24 guide.

Method: one straight-up pick per game, graded by the winner. Score discrepancies do not change these grades. Disclosure: I coach at Middletown.