Coach I’s Week 7 Picks: Two Games That Could Flip and a Tough Call at Highland

I went 16–5 last week, including a perfect 10–0 Friday. That puts me at 111–33 overall: 99–24 in Section IX matchups and 12–9 against outside opponents. The last two weeks are 34–7.

This week, Valley Central–Pine Bush and Red Hook–Saugerties are two games I could see flipping. Highland–O’Neill is another difficult call, and I’m taking Lourdes’ offense on the road against 6–1 Goshen. Here are all 21 selections and why I’m making them.

Section IX over everybody. When our teams play outside the section, I’m backing Section IX. Fallsburg over Catskill/Cairo-Durham and Ellenville over Hoosic Valley are my cross-section picks this week.

Last week’s grades and full season split · Kickoffs, records and Game Centers. One straight-up pick per game.

Schedule update, October 23: Beacon receives a forfeit win over Poughkeepsie; Saturday’s game will not be played. The original Beacon selection is retained below. Fallsburg’s Thursday opponent was corrected to Catskill/Cairo-Durham.

Thursday, October 22

Catskill/Cairo-Durham at Fallsburg

My pick: Fallsburg. Section IX over everybody. That is the rule when our teams go outside the section, and I’m sticking with Fallsburg. The Comets finally have a win after beating Rockland Central 58–0. Fallsburg has something positive to carry into Thursday, but it still has to earn this one.

Monticello at Dover

My pick: Dover. I backed Dover against O’Neill and watched the Raiders win 20–0. Monticello also arrives off a shutout loss, 35–0 at Saugerties. I still trust Dover more in this matchup, particularly at home. The Dragons need to get their offense moving again; Monticello’s chance is to keep that frustration going and make Dover work for its first points.

Friday, October 23

Kingston at Newburgh

My pick: Newburgh. Newburgh had unbeaten Middletown trailing late last week. Losing that game hurts, but it does not erase the problems the Goldbacks created. Kingston comes off a 34–20 loss to Pine Bush. I’m taking Newburgh because its recent work gives me more confidence in both its scoring ability and its ability to make Kingston chase the game.

Monroe-Woodbury at Middletown

My pick: Middletown. Middletown is 7–0 and just found a way past Newburgh. The next assignment still requires its own preparation. Monroe held Valley Central to 12 points and lost by five, so the 1–6 record does not make this an automatic. I’m backing the Middies’ consistency and their ability to finish. Monroe needs to keep the score close and turn a limited number of opportunities into touchdowns.

Liberty at Port Jervis

My pick: Port Jervis. Port beat Beacon 24–14 after trailing 8–7 at halftime. Winning the second half 17–6 against an unbeaten opponent gives me a strong reason to stay with the Raiders. Liberty comes off a 41–0 loss to Marlboro and is still looking for its first win. Port has earned the confidence, provided it brings the same attention to this assignment.

Burke Catholic at Spackenkill

My pick: Burke Catholic. Burke is 7–0 after beating Rondout 35–8. Spackenkill scored 42 against Poughkeepsie, but asking the Spartans to repeat that production against Burke is a different proposition. I’m taking the Eagles because their season has supplied the stronger body of work. Spackenkill needs to turn possessions into points and keep Burke from establishing an early cushion.

Cornwall at Wallkill

My pick: Cornwall. Cornwall beat Lourdes 43–41 by answering in the fourth quarter. Wallkill lost 38–16 at Goshen. I trust Cornwall’s offense to create enough chances here, but allowing 41 last week leaves the Dragons with work to do. Wallkill’s opportunity is to keep trading scores and force another late finish. I’m taking Cornwall to produce the plays it needs.

FDR at Minisink Valley

My pick: Minisink Valley. Both teams are 2–5, and neither arrives with a result that makes this an easy call. FDR was shut out 26–0 by Warwick; Minisink lost 41–7 to Washingtonville. I’m leaning toward Minisink at home. The first job for the Warriors is getting their offense back into the game so they are not asking their defense to carry every possession.

Washingtonville at Warwick

My pick: Washingtonville. Warwick finally has a win, and shutting out FDR 26–0 gives the Wildcats something to build on. Washingtonville presents a much tougher test after beating Minisink 41–7. The Wizards also held Goshen and Wallkill to seven points apiece in their previous two games. I’m staying with Washingtonville because that defensive consistency gives its offense room to establish control.

New Paltz at Marlboro

My pick: Marlboro. Marlboro followed its 14–7 rivalry win over Highland with a 41–0 win over Liberty. The Dukes are giving me reasons to trust them. New Paltz has shown it can score, but it comes off a 36–12 loss to Red Hook. I’m taking Marlboro to make the Huguenots sustain drives and earn their points rather than letting this become an open scoring game.

Chester at Rondout Valley

My pick: Chester. I trust Chester more here, even with both teams sitting at 2–5. The Hambletonians lost 38–14 to Highland last week; Rondout lost 35–8 to Burke. Those scores alone do not give either team a convincing edge. This is my judgment on the matchup: Chester can win it, but it needs to keep Rondout from finding an early offensive rhythm at home.

Ellenville at Hoosic Valley Central

My pick: Ellenville. Section IX over everybody. I’m backing Ellenville on the road. The Blue Devils are coming off a 42–8 loss to unbeaten Pawling, but the week before they held Millbrook to eight in a 28–8 win. That is the response they need to recover. My cross-section rule is part of this selection; I’m not presenting it as a detailed scouting verdict on Hoosic Valley.

Onteora at Pine Plains/Rhinebeck

My pick: Onteora. Onteora won 28–24 at Corinth last week; Pine Plains/Rhinebeck lost 16–6 to Millbrook. That gives me a slight lean toward Onteora, but the Bombers’ ability to keep their last game low-scoring deserves attention. Onteora needs to finish possessions. If Pine Plains keeps the visitors out of the end zone for long stretches, this becomes a much less comfortable road pick.

Rockland Central at Sullivan West

My pick: Sullivan West. Sullivan West beat Tri-Valley 38–8. Rockland Central lost 58–0 to Fallsburg. Those latest results give the Bulldogs one of the strongest cases on the card. I’m taking Sullivan West to maintain its level of play at home. Rockland needs a much better start to avoid spending the game trying to recover from an early deficit.

Saturday, October 24

Poughkeepsie at Beacon — Beacon wins by forfeit

Update, October 23: Poughkeepsie has forfeited. Saturday’s game will not be played. The original pick and preview below were written before the forfeit.

My pick: Beacon. Beacon’s two touchdowns at Port Jervis came on fumble recoveries. Its offense did not reach the end zone, and that is the response I’m watching Saturday. The Bulldogs are still 6–1; Poughkeepsie is winless after losing 42–14 to Spackenkill. I expect Beacon to win, but sustained offensive drives would tell me more than a score built on defensive plays alone.

Valley Central at Pine Bush

My pick: Valley Central. This game could flip. Both beat Kingston by nearly the same margin: VC won 20–7, Pine Bush 34–20. Pine Bush played Middletown closer, losing 28–13 compared with VC’s 29–7 loss. VC was more competitive against Lourdes, losing 39–22 while Pine Bush lost 53–12. I’m taking the Vikings because I trust their recent defense, including last week’s 12–7 win over Monroe. Pine Bush has enough offense and the home field to make that uncomfortable.

Red Hook at Saugerties

My pick: Saugerties. Another game that could flip. Red Hook beat New Paltz 36–12; Saugerties beat New Paltz 36–14. Against Beacon, Red Hook lost 49–7 and Saugerties lost 49–6. Those comparisons barely separate them. Saugerties gets my slight edge at home, with a better defensive showing against Port Jervis: a 33–0 loss compared with Red Hook’s 56–7 defeat. I expect Red Hook to have a real chance.

O’Neill at Highland

My pick: Highland. O’Neill has won its last three played games by a combined 78–22, including a 20–0 shutout of Dover. I respect that run. Highland beat Dover 31–14 and Rondout 48–14, while O’Neill beat Rondout 23–8. Both have evidence in their favor. I’m taking Highland at home, with its 7–6 win at Wallkill and 14–7 loss at Marlboro showing it can operate in tight games. The Huskies need to protect the ball; four interceptions hurt them against Marlboro.

Eldred at Tri-Valley

My pick: Eldred. I’m going with Eldred’s recent form. The Yellowjackets have put wins together against Fallsburg, Rockland and Taconic Hills, while Tri-Valley comes off a 38–8 loss to Sullivan West. Both teams are 4–2, and home field gives the Bears a chance to respond. Eldred still has to prove that its recent success carries into this division matchup. I’m backing the Yellowjackets to keep it going.

Millbrook at Pawling

My pick: Pawling. Pawling remains unbeaten after beating Ellenville 42–8. That matters because Ellenville had just held Millbrook to eight points in a 28–8 win. A common opponent does not decide Saturday’s game, but it strengthens the Tigers’ case. Millbrook comes off a 16–6 win over Pine Plains/Rhinebeck. I’m taking Pawling to create more scoring chances and make the Blazers keep pace.

Lourdes at Goshen

My pick: Lourdes. I’m taking Lourdes because I see the offensive advantage. The Warriors scored 41 at Cornwall and still lost, so this pick comes with an obvious condition: they need more stops. Goshen is 6–1 after beating Wallkill 38–16, and I’m not overlooking that production. I expect Lourdes to create enough scoring opportunities to win, but if Goshen sustains drives and limits the Warriors’ possessions, this becomes a difficult road assignment.

Full schedule, team records and Game Centers · Last week’s graded picks

Disclosure: I coach at Middletown. Picks are graded by the winner. Season totals retain the existing ledger’s treatment of picked forfeit wins.