The picks have been there. The weekly article has not.
That changes now.
Coach I Picks becomes a recurring KOT845 football column beginning with Week 2: a full card, a running record and the reasoning behind every selection. Going forward, the plan is to publish the complete card before the week gets underway — ideally on Wednesday — and leave every pick on the record.
The first two weekly cards were not released publicly in full before kickoff. This opening ledger reflects the selections KOT845 had established internally through its rankings, matchup work and recorded pregame picks. From here forward, the entire card will be published before the games.
And when Section IX goes outside the section, the philosophy remains the same:
Section 9 over EVERYBODY.
The record entering Friday
Week 0: 11–11
Week 1: 13–7
Week 2 through Thursday: 4–0
Overall: 28–18 (.609)
All current-season scoring figures below are based on results in the KOT845 game database through Thursday, September 17. Historical series figures refer to scored meetings preserved in the KOT845 archive. With most teams only one or two games into the season, those numbers are context — not conclusions.
Week 0: 11–11
Opening week was exactly what opening week usually is: unpredictable.
Coach I finished 11–11 across the 22-game slate. The hits included Ellenville over Fallsburg, Red Hook over Rondout Valley, Beacon over Roy C. Ketcham, Valley Central over Yorktown, Goshen over John Jay Cross River, O’Neill over Haldane, FDR over Poughkeepsie, Burke Catholic over Monticello, Middletown over Arlington, Minisink Valley over Mahopac and Kingston over Mount Vernon.
There were plenty of misses, too.
Lourdes was the pick over Washingtonville. Washingtonville won 34–16. New Paltz was the pick over Spackenkill. Spackenkill won 29–20. Wallkill was the pick over Highland. Highland escaped 7–6.
The Section 9 over EVERYBODY selections went 7–8 against outside opponents. The eight misses were Pine Bush against John Jay East Fishkill, Cornwall against Rye, Newburgh against Curtis, Monroe-Woodbury against JFK Campus, Warwick against Wagner, Port Jervis against Waverly, Chester against Tuckahoe and Liberty against Walton-Downsville.
The three misses in Section IX matchups were Lourdes against Washingtonville, New Paltz against Spackenkill and Wallkill against Highland. That makes Week 0 4–3 inside the section and 11–11 overall.
Week 0: 11–11.
Week 1: 13–7
Week 1 was much better.
Coach I went 13–7, improving the season record to 24–18.
The week started 0–2. Monroe-Woodbury was the pick over Washingtonville, and the Wizards won 17–14. Pine Bush was the pick over Lourdes, and Lourdes responded with a 53–12 win.
From there, the card recovered.
- Sullivan West over Ellenville — 56–14.
- Valley Central over Wallkill — 32–25.
- FDR over Monticello — 42–0.
- Spackenkill over Red Hook — 27–14.
- Beacon over O’Neill — 29–22.
- Rondout Valley over New Paltz — 30–7.
- Marlboro over Chester — 12–7.
- Goshen over Kingston — 12–7.
- Millbrook over Fallsburg — 34–0.
- Highland over Poughkeepsie — 40–0.
- Newburgh over Warwick — 42–6.
- Burke Catholic over Liberty — 56–6.
- Pine Plains/Rhinebeck over Rockland Central — 48–0.
The misses included Minisink Valley over Port Jervis, Cornwall over Middletown, Eldred over Pawling, Onteora over Tri-Valley and Saugerties over Dover.
Week 1: 13–7. Season: 24–18.
Week 2 started 4–0
Thursday night could not have gone much better.
- Newburgh over Washingtonville — Newburgh won 48–12.
- Kingston over FDR — Kingston won 35–14.
- Saugerties over Liberty — Saugerties won 35–6.
- Highland over Rondout Valley — Highland won 48–14.
That moves the running record to 28–18, a .609 winning percentage, entering Friday night.
Coach I’s Friday picks
Red Hook at Beacon
Coach I Picks Beacon over Red Hook.
Beacon owns the better early-season profile. The Bulldogs are 2–0 with 56 points scored and 36 allowed, a +20 point differential. Red Hook is 1–1 with 28 scored and 39 allowed, a -11 differential.
Beacon is averaging 28.0 points per game while allowing 18.0. Red Hook is at 14.0 scored and 19.5 allowed. The two documented meetings currently preserved by KOT845 are split 1–1, but Beacon won the most recent one 43–0 in 2024.
Cornwall at Monroe-Woodbury
Coach I Picks Cornwall over Monroe-Woodbury.
This one is much closer statistically than 0–2 against 0–2 makes it look.
Cornwall has scored 42 points and allowed 61. Monroe-Woodbury has scored 34 and allowed 53. Both enter with the exact same -19 point differential.
Cornwall is averaging 21.0 points per game, compared with 17.0 for Monroe-Woodbury. The history favors the Crusaders: Cornwall is 5–9–1 across 15 documented meetings, and Monroe-Woodbury has won the last two — 18–9 in 2024 and 7–3 in 2025.
This is not a history pick. Cornwall has produced slightly more offense through a difficult opening stretch and was one point away from beating current No. 1 Middletown last week. Coach I takes the Dragons to break through.
Pine Plains/Rhinebeck at Fallsburg
Coach I Picks Pine Plains/Rhinebeck over Fallsburg.
Pine Plains/Rhinebeck opened its season with a 48–0 win over Rockland Central.
Fallsburg has been outscored 88–20 through two games — a -68 differential — and is allowing 44.0 points per game. Pine Plains/Rhinebeck has only one game of 2026 data, so the sample is limited, but 48–0 is enough to make the early statistical edge clear.
Our Lady of Lourdes at Valley Central
Coach I Picks Lourdes over Valley Central.
Valley Central enters 2–0 with 53 points scored and 39 allowed, a +14 differential.
Lourdes is 1–1 but owns the stronger overall scoring margin: 69–46, +23. The Warriors are averaging 34.5 points per game, compared with 26.5 for Valley Central.
Valley Central has the better defensive average at 19.5 points allowed per game, but Lourdes just put 53 on Pine Bush. Coach I takes the Warriors.
Warwick at Pine Bush
Coach I Picks Warwick over Pine Bush.
Neither team has started well.
Warwick has scored 25 points and allowed 70, a -45 differential. Pine Bush has scored 46 and allowed 94, a -48 differential.
Pine Bush has produced more offensively — 23.0 points per game compared with Warwick’s 12.5 — but has also allowed 47.0 points per game. Warwick has allowed 35.0. Coach I leans toward the stronger early defensive number.
New Paltz at Chester Academy
Coach I Picks Chester over New Paltz.
Chester has scored only 17 points through two games, but the Hambletonians have allowed just 33. New Paltz has scored 27 while allowing 59.
That gives Chester a -16 differential compared with New Paltz at -32. Chester is allowing 16.5 points per game; New Paltz is allowing 29.5. The defensive difference drives this pick.
Spackenkill at Dover
Coach I Picks Dover over Spackenkill.
This is one of the more aggressive selections on the card.
Spackenkill is 2–0, has scored 56 points, allowed 34 and carries a +22 differential. Dover has only one game of data, but that game was a 31–7 road win over Saugerties.
The safer statistical pick is Spackenkill because there is more evidence. Coach I is still taking Dover because of how convincing its opening performance was. This is the upset call.
Ellenville at Eldred
Coach I Picks Eldred over Ellenville.
The current-season scoring numbers favor Ellenville. The Blue Devils have scored 68 points in two games, while Eldred has played once and lost 30–6 to Pawling.
The history pulls this pick back toward Eldred. The Yellowjackets beat Ellenville 34–0 in 2025 and later won the 2025 eight-man championship in a 76–60 title game over Sullivan West.
Coach I is weighing the recent matchup history and Eldred’s established eight-man ceiling against a very small 2026 sample.
Monticello at Goshen
Coach I Picks Goshen over Monticello.
This is the largest statistical mismatch on Friday’s 11-man slate.
Goshen is 2–0 with 40 points scored and 34 allowed.
Monticello is 0–2 and has been outscored 97–0. The Panthers are allowing 48.5 points per game and have yet to score this season.
Goshen has already shown it can finish close games. Coach I takes the Gladiators to move to 3–0.
Port Jervis at Marlboro
Coach I Picks Port Jervis over Marlboro.
Both current form and series history point toward Port.
Port Jervis has scored 54 points and allowed 39 through two games, a +15 differential, and just beat Minisink Valley 31–3.
KOT845 currently has 16 documented meetings in the series. Port is 13–3 and has won 10 straight. The Raiders won the most recent meeting 28–0 in 2025. Marlboro’s last documented win came in the 2019 regular season, 28–20.
Until Marlboro ends the streak, Coach I stays with Port.
Pawling at Sullivan West
Coach I Picks Sullivan West over Pawling.
Both teams were impressive in their openers.
Pawling beat Eldred 30–6, a +24 margin. Sullivan West beat Ellenville 56–14, a +42 margin.
The documented series is dead even at 5–5 across 10 meetings. Pawling won the 2025 regular-season meeting 61–32, but Sullivan West answered with a 30–6 win in the 2025 eight-man semifinals. Sullivan West also won championship meetings in 2024 and 2023.
The recent postseason history breaks the tie for Coach I.
Poughkeepsie at Wallkill
Coach I Picks Wallkill over Poughkeepsie.
Wallkill is 0–2, but its two losses have come by a combined eight points: 7–6 to Highland and 32–25 to Valley Central.
The Panthers have scored 31 and allowed 39, a -8 differential.
Poughkeepsie is also 0–2 but has been outscored 84–0. Wallkill has scored 31 points. Poughkeepsie has scored zero. Coach I takes Wallkill to get its first win.
Saturday picks
Middletown at Minisink Valley
Coach I Picks Middletown over Minisink Valley.
The current numbers strongly favor Middletown.
Middletown is 2–0 and has outscored opponents 54–21. That is a +33 differential, 27.0 points scored per game and just 10.5 allowed.
Minisink is 1–1 and has been outscored 46–21, a -25 differential. Minisink is averaging 10.5 points per game — exactly the same number Middletown is allowing.
Middletown also owns a 32–0 shutout and just won at Cornwall. Coach I stays with the current No. 1 team in the KOT845 Power 40.
Millbrook at Tri-Valley
Coach I Picks Millbrook over Tri-Valley.
Millbrook opened with a 34–0 shutout of Fallsburg. Tri-Valley beat Onteora 18–16.
That gives Millbrook an early +34 scoring margin and Tri-Valley a +2 margin.
The documented history is even more significant. KOT845 has 19 scored meetings between the programs. Millbrook leads 13–6 and has won six straight. The latest meeting was a 44–6 Millbrook win in 2025.
Current form and history both point in the same direction.
Rockland Central at Onteora
Coach I Picks Onteora over Rockland Central.
Onteora lost its opener 18–16 to Tri-Valley, giving the Eagles a -2 differential.
Rockland Central lost 48–0 to Pine Plains/Rhinebeck, a -48 differential.
The difference in their opening performances is enough for Coach I to take Onteora.
O’Neill at Burke Catholic
KOT845 is not including O’Neill–Burke in the Coach I picks record because of the forfeit situation surrounding the matchup. There is no reason to manufacture a prediction for a game that may not be played as scheduled.
The ledger
Week 0: 11–11
Week 1: 13–7
Week 2 through Thursday: 4–0
Overall: 28–18 (.609)
Fifteen more Week 2 selections are now on the record.
No changing them Saturday morning. No deleting the misses. No pretending the upsets never happened.
That is the point of the series.
Coach I Picks are officially on the record.
Beginning next week, the complete card will be published before the week gets underway.
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